2010, the year of mobility? According to Julien Blin, Principal Analyst and CEO at technologies research and consulting services company JBB Research, based in USA, the African continent will undergo a higher focus on 4G technologies, cheaper, more capable smartphones and improved mobile social networking, payment and entertainment services for its end users in the current year, with 2010 World Cup the main driver in South Africa.
Here are his top 10 predictions for the African wireless market in 2010:
1. Mobile entertainment services set to remain African carriers’ top priority to offset the continued decline of their total ARPU (Average Revenue Per User). In 2009, many African carriers experienced a decline of their total ARPU due to increase pricing war. I expect this trend to continue. Thus, African carriers will continue to focus on mobile data services to offset the decline of their total ARPU.
2. 2010 set to be a critical year for Mobile advertising space in Africa. 2010 World Cup Set to Be a Key driver. As mobile web and mobile payment continue to gain traction in Africa, 2010 should see the emergence of innovative mobile advertising concepts in Africa. I expect to see more African carriers focusing on mobile advertising concepts going beyond traditional SMS-based campaigns.
WAP banner ads, MMS-based campaigns and ad-funded or ad-supported services/content embedded with value-added features/capabilities like mobile LBS, commerce, (e.g. mobile coupons), widgets, social networking, will start to gain traction in 2010. In South Africa, the 2010 World Cup is set to be a key driver here.
3. Scheduled rollout of first LTE networks in Africa in 2010 set to improve user experience and drive mobile entertainment content/service adoption. As African carriers continue to upgrade their network to 4G technologies (e.g. WiMAX, LTE), users will be able to enjoy a better user experience while using mobile entertainment services as those services will run on faster networks like LTE or WiMAX.
African carriers in countries like South Africa and Libya are scheduled to start rolling out their LTE network in 2010. This should help further drive mobile entertainment services usage.
4. Various 4G strategies likely to emerge in 2010. While LTE is set to be the flavor of choice for many carriers at the world level, this might be a different story in Africa. Some African carriers will decide to focus primarily on WiMAX or LTE while others will choose a dual approach (WiMAX-LTE).
5. Improving billing mechanisms and content delivery set to be a top priority for African carriers in 2010. In 2010, more African carriers will start forging strategic partnerships with third party companies specialized in billing mechanism and content delivery. By doing so, carriers will be able to do a better job at differentiating their mobile content products and services, and delivery mechanisms, instead of simply differentiating themselves on pricing and voice quality.
That being said, improving customer care, while preventing revenue leakage issues, and adopting more robust mobile entertainment platforms, will remain some of African carriers’ top priorities.
6. Mobile blogging/mobile social networking set to become a key theme among African carriers in 2010. As camera phones continue to gain significant traction in Africa, I expect simple and enhanced chat services, mobile blogging applications, and picture uploading services to experience one of the fastest adoption growths in the African mobile entertainment services/content market.
7. Local content, another key priority for African carriers to attract new customers and drive mobile entertainment adoption. While voice services are set to remain the key purchasing factor, and “king” for most carriers, in 2010, African carriers and application developers will start to provide more local content. To do so, I expect to see more African carriers partnering with local content and mobile app providers.
8. Mobile payment services set to become more affordable and capable, embedded with new value added features. I expect to see the emergence of more affordable and capable mobile payment services in Africa. In 2010, I also look ahead to more African carriers offering mobile payment services, which can work across various carriers and countries, and allow customers to make international money transfers.
Nokia’s scheduled entry in the African mobile payment market in 2010 is set to play a key role here. Lastly, I expect to watch new carriers in the North African regions jumping on the mobile payment bandwagon.
9. Feature phones set to become more capable. In 2010, I look forward to feature phones to become more capable, embedded with better picture/video recording and uploading, and Bluetooth capabilities, and full browsing technologies based on commercial web browsers from Opera.
This should help further drive the mobile web adoption in Africa. Ultimately, it will also help further drive the adoption of web-based mobile entertainment services (e.g. mobile blogging).
10. 3G Smartphones and services set to become more affordable. I anticipate the emergence of more affordable 3G services and devices (BlackBerry devices, iPhone 3G, Android devices, etc) in Africa. As a result, this should help drive the adoption of mobile entertainment services/content in Africa.
