Spectre of ‘load shedding’ return?

The spectre of ‘load shedding’ and power blackouts could return to South Africa before year-end [2008] if rumours that Eskom is set to pull two power stations off the national grid for repairs and maintenance are true.

This is the view of Philip Hampton, chief technology officer at Powermode, a specialist power management company, who says Eskom’s reported reserve capacity is less than 6% and if one or more power stations is closed down then South African consumers will be forced to “return to the dark days of rolling blackouts that characterised the first quarter of 2008”.

“The market is aware that Eskom is doing its best to re-activate mothballed power stations, but with all its current stations working flat-out, at 90%-plus capacity, wear and tear is inevitable and maintenance unavoidable,” he says.

Adding fuel to the fire, he spotlights reports that new public enterprises minister Brigitte Mabandla might review the R 343 billion budget – given the state of the global economy – that Eskom needs to raise to fund its maintenance and re-commissioning programme.

“More significantly, the recent resignation of Eskom’s finance director Bongani Nqwababa has been linked to his failure to attract investment to keep the programme going,” he adds.

Turning to the alternative power market, Hampton says there is currently an oversupply of generators, inverters, battery backup systems and UPS systems.

“However, should load shedding return, these units – currently being offered at sizable discounts – will climb steeply in price. The problem is there is a significant amount of low-quality product on offer which will also be sold at a premium if demand should escalate.”

Hampton says end users should take this opportunity to reassess their positions with regard to strategic power supplies and make contingency plans accordingly – preferably in partnership with a knowledgeable consultant.

“This is particularly relevant as Eskom is intent on badgering consumers to reduce consumption by 10% based on the last 12 months’ usage. Perhaps they don’t realise that this is generally an already low figure as companies began introducing power saving programmes with the load shedding that occurred in the first quarter of 2008

“Eskom’s plan to penalise companies that do not comply appears to be extortionary,” he adds.