After a frantic few years of activity in the South African data services market, I see mobile devices and applications driving the country’s ICT sector this year.
As sleek new tablets and ultrabooks reach the market alongside a mobile banking revolution, expect to see more South Africans using mobile communications and devices to access data.
First, let us look at forecasts made around this time last year, before continuing:
The year of the tablet – I expected certain brands to perform better than they did. However, tablets going mainstream was predicted, and it even exceeded expectations.
Android rising – Android excelled domestically and worldwide in 2011.
Nokia gets its groove back – The jury is still out, but Nokia looks healthier than previous years. I expected a comeback from their Meego operating system, but Nokia’s new relationship with Microsoft improved their outlook.
ADSL now a must-have – My prediction was overly optimistic. Low fixed-line penetration and South Africa’s love affair with mobile broadband meant ADSL became a niche market will likely remain so for the foreseeable future.
Voice tariffs keep dropping – Not as sharp as I expected though. Lower termination rates translated into some customers saving.
Let’s move onto the trends we can expect in 2012 in the local and international ICT industry.
Ultrabooks become must have gadgets
Cynics may regard ultrabooks as nothing other than thin notebooks or a response to Apple’s MacBooks from PC manufacturers, but they will be the hot topic gadget-wise this year. Thanks to Intel’s smaller more power-efficient chips manufacturers can produce thinner ultrabooks than ever before. Expect exciting products to be announced at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas and other throughout the year. Pricey at first, early adopters will soon produce these for the mass market.
Tablets growing and growing
This prediction is a no-brainer. Researcher Strategy Analytics says worldwide 67 million tablets were sold last year. Growing by 260% from 18.6 million units sold in 2010, the market is just getting started. One report noted unprecedented tablet shipments in the US over the festive season. One in every five Americans owned a tablet or e-reader at the start of 2012. The likely release of the Apple iPad 3, better Android devices, and the arrival of Windows 8 tablets this year, we can gear up for fireworks.
Traditional notebooks commoditisation
An ultrabook out of your reach? Good news! A run-of-the-mill laptop or notebook computer will be more affordable than ever before. Competition from the ultrabook and tablet segments will allow you to buy a machine with good specs and battery life at a low price tag by the year’s end.
Innovative mobile banking
The cellphone is one of the biggest electronic banking channels in South Africa. However, many popular services are based on old technologies such as SMS and USSD. This year we’ll see a mobile banking activity flurry as banks align themselves a mobile banking revolution.
Expect action on the application front. FNB last year led the charge with tablet and smartphone deals aimed at getting mobile devices into customers’ hands, and rich apps for mobile banking. Others are likely to follow.
Another trend to watch is Near Field Communications (NFC), a short-range wireless technology enabling you to use your mobile as your wallet. Some banks are trialling the technology and most newer mid-to-high range smartphones feature NFC. Commercial deployment seems unlikely this year, but expect banks to experiment and investigate NFC thoroughly during 2012.
Wi-Fi offloading
Mobile data costs are dramatically dropping. But I do not see much scope for them to tumble much further until the wide deployment of spectrum-efficient technologies such as LTE by South African networks.
Cellular networks are already congested in metros, delivering patchy performance on the best of days. Expect to see Wi-Fi networks prosper as a result. Users will access cheaper and faster hotspot access from their tablets, smartphones and notebooks when they can over cellular data services.
Tim Walter, Nashua Mobile executive head of marketing
